Posts tagged ‘politics’

October 5, 2011

The GOP’s Mister Magoo Moment

First of all, I’d like to thank my friend Millie over at Fittingly for linking this blog in a post the other day. Also apropos are thanks to Capitol Hill Gang for linking as well, as it’s the first blog run by a complete stranger to actually read my work. Progress? I can guarantee that neither of you will see a spike in readership from your generosity but linked you are nonetheless.

In any case, after that last lengthy post, we now return to what is rapidly becoming our basic format on At Water’s Edge: an extended pop-culture metaphor serving as the framing mechanism for the IR-ish current events topic of choice. I may one day grow tired of writing these kinds of posts. But today is not that day. The comparison subject du jour is none other than The Nearsighted Mister Magoo. Why that man never invested in a solid pair of bifocals is beyond me. His stubbornness caused mishaps of the outlandish comedic variety, often drawing humor from the irony involved with Mister Magoo putting himself in grave danger unbeknownst to him but perfectly clear to the observing audience. The inability to see too much further than an inch past his face led me far too quickly to realize that he is the perfect symbol for Republican’s extremely nearsighted budget cutting mania, especially when it comes to the Foreign Aid budget.

In fact, ‘extremely nearsighted’ is putting it mildly and indeed gently when it comes to the overarching determination to shrink the size of the Federal government. I’m, if you could not tell, in favor of greater Federal power over the states, but I can understand the arguments that states’ rights people make in certain regards; when the country was founded, the Constitution was intended to truly bind the states into one country, while still preserving large swaths of independence. However, the world, the country, and even the Constitution, has evolved since those times, in ways that the established norms that were at the forefront of thought at the drafting of the Constitution could not predict nor would they be entirely applicable as a frame of reference in many of today’s issues. In areas like education, I can almost understand why some would advocate a reduction of government spending and an increase in the power of the states to determine their own course. When it comes to matters of national security and foreign affairs though, you really can’t make anything that resembles a Tenth Amendment argument. No debate is needed about the Constitutionality of the Federal government providing structures to advance foreign affairs. These are the issues that precipitated the very necessity of the Constitution; you need the Federal government to draw up the agenda and make the decisions necessary for the US to play on the world stage, in a way that fifty competing states just can’t.

Despite this need, the common defense provided for by the Preamble of the Constitution only extends as far as the armed services in the eyes of many. It’s ridiculously easy for GOP candidates and elected officials alike to take on straw-man Federal targets that the Republican Party thinks aren’t useful, or are over-bloated, or wasteful. These are all valid points in some areas, but not when it comes to the foreign policy mechanisms of the Federal government. The items in the budget under fire are some of the most important parts of the Federal government when it comes to keeping Americans safe, at home and abroad, at least on the same par as the deterrence that our armed forces represent. The United States is a poor target for states militarily due to the very basic fact that state-to-state, we still possess the hard power to take out almost any adversary in a blaze of blinding glory. There are maybe five states that could one day serve as an actual threat to the United States militarily, even less that would rate the level of existential threat. What you see instead of true sabre-rattling and actual military threats by states that disagree with or would wish to harm the United States is either support of various non-state actors who then act kinetically against the US and its allies or a slandering of the United States in the hopes that their views become a meme, part of the overarching narrative in global affairs today. The latter is what the US needs to get far better at preventing, because what’s the point of military deterrence when you lose every fight that isn’t on the battlefield? You can steamroll everyone’s army, but if nobody likes you enough to support any of your goals aside from at the barrel of a gun, what’s the point?

Arguments can be made that by sheer size of its economy that it makes it impossible for the US to be ignored, but the fact still remains that even trade alone does not make for partners whose goals align in lockstep with yours (see: the US and China). This need to influence other states without bombing or buying them makes particularly attractive Joseph Nye’s idea of soft power, a concept that the majority of Republican officials these days refuse to even acknowledge exists except to mock it. Strategically this makes no sense: When you can attract instead of deter, it makes things a lot simpler in terms of getting your way and is far, far cheaper in the long run.

As it stands, however, the Department of State is taking hits across the board, facing huge budget cuts as we (finally) begin discussing the FY 2012 budget.

As lawmakers scramble to trim the swelling national debt, both the Republican-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate have proposed slashing financing for the State Department and its related aid agencies at a time of desperate humanitarian crises and uncertain political developments. The proposals have raised the specter of deep cuts in food and medicine for Africa, in relief for disaster-affected places like Pakistan and Japan, in political and economic assistance for the new democracies of the Middle East, and even for the Peace Corps.

The financial crunch threatens to undermine a foreign policy described as “smart power” by President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, one that emphasizes diplomacy and development as a complement to American military power. It also would begin to reverse the increase in foreign aid that President George W. Bush supported after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as part of an effort to combat the roots of extremism and anti-American sentiment, especially in the most troubled countries.

Given the relatively small foreign aid budget — it accounts for 1 percent of federal spending over all — the effect of the cuts could be disproportional.

The State Department already has scaled back plans to open more consulates in Iraq, for example. The spending trend has also constrained support for Tunisia and Egypt, where autocratic leaders were overthrown in popular uprisings. While many have called for giving aid to these countries on the scale of the Marshall Plan that helped rebuild European democracies after World War II, the administration has been able to propose only relatively modest investments and loans, and even those have stalled in Congress.

Emphasis on the last paragraph cannot be stressed enough. In a time of global upheaval, where the world is looking to the United States for more than just military support, we’re instead severing ties, making it all the more likely that incoming rulers in states affected by the Arab Spring and other revolutionary movements will be that much less influenced by the United States, let alone friendly.

And let’s bear in mind just how little cutting the budget of the State Department will affect the overall budget, deficits and national debt. Over on Duck of Minerva, they’ve come up with an impressive list of analogies, about how little these cuts will help the overall budget crisis. My favorite has to be “Cutting foreign aid to address the budget crisis is like getting your hair cut in an effort to lose weight.” Numerous polls have proven that the American public has no earthly idea how much the US spends on its foreign aid, in March calling for the foreign aid budget to be cut from 25% of the budget to 10% of the budget. The problem, as anyone who reads cares about this stuff enough to actually read this knows, is that the actual percentage is close to 1. 1%.  As Josh Lyman once put it “68% of respondents think we hand out too much in foreign aid, 59% think it should be cut”, once again proving that The West Wing is applicable in nearly any situation.

Also of concern is that the same spending cuts are also threatening the growth of the Foreign Service:

Among the largest House subcommittee reductions was a nearly 20 percent cut in the funds that pay for Foreign Service officers and the civilians who support them. In justifying this action, the subcommittee report said it eliminated funds sought for 184 new staff because since 2008, some 1,622 Foreign Service officers and 1,001 civilians had been hired above attrition.

Ramping down the Foreign Service is about the worst idea you could possibly have at this time. As we begin cuts in our military which will necessarily affect our global strategy, and many people on both sides of the aisle say are necessary, we have to have some way to leverage US power into actually policy decisions by other states that benefit us. The most cost-effective way that we can maintain American prestige is to hire more Foreign Service Officers as the number of soldiers decrease, a strategy that Secretary Clinton has followed over the past several years, as can be seen by the amount of growth since 2008. To slow that growth is a tremendous mistake right now.

Now, I said “majority of Republicans” earlier, because there are most certainly vocal advocates of the benefits of smart power, including former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Secretary Gates spoke together with Secretary Clinton numerous times on the idea of smart power, to Congress and to the public, in ways that you would think would carry more weight than coming from State alone. Here you have the leader of the Department of Defense begging and pleading that the military be given more civilian support in keeping the peace, and the Congress saying ‘no’. In fact, with the proposed cuts, it seems to be more of a ‘hell no’. Shouted through a megaphone. The fact that the all-star combo of Clinton/Gates was ignored by Congress on advocating smart power says a lot to me about how little I want the Legislative Branch determining foreign policy. Granted, given their power of the purse some involvement is inevitable. But to use their platform to dash foreign aid against the rocks by strangling it to death, to mix metaphors, is atrocious.

The State Department is not alone in the crosshairs. USAID also took a hit in the same House subcommittee, going from $1.5B requested to $900M, which could seriously undermine the strategy laid out in the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. What’s more, that perennial foe of the Republican party, the United Nations, is a prime target this Congress. The 1980s saw the US withdrawing from UNESCO due to objections of the Reagan Administration over the agenda. The US went into arrears in the 1990s as the United States refused to pay the entirety of its dues. Only through a push by Ted Turner the United Nations Foundation’s Better World Campaign and the results of a bipartisan effort were we able to pay off our debt and become members in good standing again. Already, those efforts are under threat, as we are currently $736M in debt to the UN. Thanks, House of Representatives.

Well, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtenin is at it again. Earlier this year, after being handed the gavel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Congresswoman convened hearings in January titled “The United Nations: Urgent Problems that Need Congressional Action” and in April called “Reforming the United Nations: The Future of U.S. Policy” with Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice testifying. The latest salvo, H.R. 2829, the United Nations Transparency, Accountability, and Reform Act of 2011, was introduced in late August to the House Foreign Affairs Committee.  Despite the bill’s title, filled with words that few people could disagree with, the bill would put unrealistic pressure on the Secretariat to produce changes that would be more detrimental than actually improving the UN. The GOP has long called for a ‘voluntary’ model for paying for the UN, in essence cherry-picking what it does and does not want to support and pay for, else the US would reduce its payments by half. In addition, the bill, if passed, would end U.S. funding for any UN agency that does not sign a special “transparency certification” with the U.S. Comptroller General. And it would cut U.S. funding to any UN entity tasked with implementing the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women.

Can you imagine how embarrassing it would be to have the US’ vote in the General Assembly withdrawn due to lack of payment? In addition, lawmakers seem to be missing out on the fact that the United Nations is the best foreign policy investment we could ever hope to make. In the January testimony, Better World Campaign Executive Director Peter Yeo stated that for every dollar of US investment in the UN, it delivers $1.50 in investment in American firms and companies. The same could most certainly not be said in the case of military spending in Iraq. Also, according to Ambassador Susan Rice in an interview on PBS in 2009, “if the US was to act on its own – unilaterally – and deploys its own forces in many of these countries, for every dollar the US would spend, the UN can accomplish the mission for twelve cents”.  So to fix the budget, the GOP would have us spend eight times as much on foreign intervention, or cut off all overseas missions. Sounds right to me. Thankfully, there’s been plenty of pushback against this bill, which never stands a chance of passage through the US Senate or not being vetoed by President Obama. That the GOP can score points this way though is highly disturbing.

Despite all of my arguments, it does stand to reason that it is hard to explain to American citizens why their money is going “over there” to build schools and roads when our infrastructure is crumbling, disaster relief when people are still struggling from last year’s oil spill in the Gulf, and food when we have children starving in our inner cities. The simplest of answers is “because we can”; that despite all of the economic hardships our country has had in the past three years, we are still the richest and most powerful state on Earth, and to turn our backs on the rest of the world would be callous beyond reason. The less altruistic view is the one that I ascribe to, that this foreign aid helps keep the world safer and America strong abroad, which is a necessity in a world that has shrunk down as we become more connected. To cut the knees out from under the foreign policy mechanisms now is amazingly short-sighted; this is a time where we need more friends abroad, not fewer, and withdrawing from the initiatives of the Foreign Service and the United Nations will undoubted prove detrimental in the long-run. Earlier this year, the Obama Administration floated the idea of combining the budgets of the Pentagon, Foggy Bottom, and DHS into a “unified security budget”. It’s an idea that’s worth discussing, but unfortunately, the GOP can’t see past their own face, or rather their next election, where the idea of cutting defense in favor of agricultural support seems downright un-American. The Mr. Magoo cartoons made light of the issue of myopia, but when it comes to the United States, it’s no laughing matter.

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October 1, 2011

The Democrats really could use a foreign policy Girl Talk

First of all, I stand by my title fully and totally. I know that coming off of the Venezuela is the Lady Gaga of the United Nations article that I run the risk of overloading on pop culture references far too early in this blog’s life. But I have an article on China’s potential naval future that’s almost done, and I wanted something light before I drop that heavy knowledge on you.

Onward. Before continuing with this post, if you have never listened to mashup artist Greg Gillis, BKA Girl Talk, stop reading. Go download his albums right now. I’ll wait. I don’t care if you don’t think you like mashups, you’ll love this. Girl Talk’s music consists almost entirely of samples of another songs, that have been spliced and remixed and blended together into all new songs. Over the years he’s gotten tremendously good at it, to the point that I can’t listen to some of the songs he samples with then immediately progressing on to the next few bars of his version.

When listening to all this though, all you hear is great music. When you listen to it on somewhere like Mashup Breakdown that actually details all the pieces that went into the work, you start to get a better understanding of the parts that make it up, things that you never would have thought would go together, like Queen and the Jackson 5.

All of this is to say that this seemingly effortless blending of what were once unrelated into something new and lasting is something that the Democrats as of late have been horrible at. I don’t just mean their general messaging, which is always rocky at best. I’m specifically talking about their foreign policy messaging.

Take for a starter yesterday’s killing of US-born cleric cum al-Qaeda frontman Anwar Al-Awlaki in Yemen. No matter how you stand on the matter, the fact is that his death is something that in the past Republicans would base whole campaigns around. The 2004 presidential elections were based almost entirely on national security matters, with the view that Republicans absolutely trounced the Democrats when it comes to protecting the country. Now with yet another terrorist leader on the big “We Got ‘Im” board that I’m sure exists on the Situation Room’s wall, posted right under Osama bin Laden, President Obama can be seen as a true leader when it comes to keep us safe, right? Nope.

Like it or not, the Democrats have had a very difficult time of connecting their myriad policies into anything cohesive. What they need to get much better at is taking areas where they have traditionally been strong and blending them with where they have been seen as weak, using the former to bolster the latter and give new credence to their ideas overall. A policy mashup, if you will.

But how could this be done, you ask? What are some areas that would be an ideal testing of this notion? I’m glad you asked. What really got me thinking about this as a whole is the stunning inability of the Democrats to reframe the climate change debate. For the last decade, the overarching narrative of the green movement has been the case of hippies who care more about owls than people versus businesses that just want to keep Americans employed and can’t do so under tons of environmental regulations. This is an extremely stupid narrative, one that denies that climate change even exists, but it’s latched onto the American psyche like a bear trap.

Attempts by the Democrats to take this movement and mix it with their strength on the economy has failed, as a case where two positives somehow make a negative. Yes, the Democrats have had a traditional advantage on economic issues, and yes, there is no disputing the Democratic leadership on climate matters. Democrats pushed hard on the notion that investment in cleaning up the environment would produce more jobs and help pull the US out of recession. The two strengths in tandem, however, only led to an easy opening for Republicans to tar the Waxman-Markey bill as more Democratic tax and spending, playing right into their trap of allowing the right to claim that there were no good ideas for the recovery of the economy.

I think that a new approach is needed. The Democrats have to find a way to take traditional policies and ideas and intertwine them in areas that President Obama is seen currently as virtually unassailable: foreign policy. Absolutely nobody thought that this would be the conventional wisdom a little over a year out of the 2012 election, but here we are. The Republicans are inevitably going to nominate someone with little foreign policy experience and, odd as it may seem, they are going to take a pounding for it. More to come on that in pending posts.

So we have President Obama speaking from a place of strength on national security, but where does that leave economic measures and environmentalists? This is where the Girl Talk model comes in. Economic issues are often spoken of by Democrats as a matter of fairness and equality, breaking down barriers, and a society where everyone is looking out for everyone else, which I totally agree with. But that message is just is not hitting home for voters right now, no matter how basically it is stated. What needs to happen is a greater emphasis on the economic state of the United States as a national security issue. This has been done in fits and starts such as by now-former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, and more often by Republicans like Jon Huntsman,  but these statements tend to indicate that the size of the national debt is the only piece that actually counts against us in security terms. In reality, the United States’ greatest strength lies in its economic potential, not its military resources, because without the former we find ourselves as a much larger version of the DPRK, all muscle with no skeleton to back it up.

Obama’s American Jobs Act has been said to have the potential to forestall another recession and raise the the country’s GDP by at least a small amount in the coming year. All of this puts the US in a much safer position in security terms than if we were to enter another period of negative growth. President Obama’s barnstorming across the country, though, has been couched in the language of Democrats in the past: “It isn’t class warfare, it’s math”. Which is great and all, but doesn’t have the same impact as “this bill will keep us all safe”.

The same thing can be said of the environmental movement. If you really want to jump-start efforts towards climate change legislation, it needs to be played up as a matter affecting our national security. The fact of the matter is that as climate change alters environments around the world, we are going to see a massive amount of migration and shifting of state borders, as some states such as the Maldives are set to disappear all together as waters rise. Rising temperatures also forewarn of more desertification and greater food insecurity. These things lead to greater instability and increase the very factors that make extremism and terrorism appealing to youth across the globe. When everything is awful, why not use violence to attempt to make things better, especially violence against the place that seems like it managing to be the greatest contributor to but least affected by climate change. Forestalling climate change needs to be rightly labeled as a top security concern.

Finally, education reform could also stand with being remixed and advanced in a national security light. The US still has the greatest number of top institutions of higher education in the world. But the country is continuing to drop lower and lower on scales of countries with students that excel in math and science. The system has been broken for years, but education has been and remains a top concern for Democrats. What needs to be said to really drive this home would be something along the lines of: “America has succeeded because America has long had the smartest people, the most able people, working diligently to further our advances in the sciences and in turn making life better for us all. Without American advancing in computing, the smartphone in your hand would not exist. Without the men and women of the Manhattan Project, there would have been no atomic bomb, preventing the deaths of thousands of soldiers in World War II. The United States remains the most advanced technological society on earth, and for us to continue to our way of life against those who would do us harm, we must retain that position”. To allow our students to stagnate should be seen as a risk that the United States simply can’t take.

This new approach wouldn’t be a magic bullet to Democratic messaging woes, obviously, and could be met with calls of “fear-mongering” by the right, which I would find a delicious irony. In my view, investing in ourselves and our future has to be considered of the utmost priority to any real US security strategy. I further think this blending of ideas is a way that could get the Democrats to finally achieve some of what both liberal and moderate members of their party have been craving for the last three years. In turn, foreign policy and international security need to be viewed in a broader framework than the bombs and bullets dominated work of the past.

Granted, there are some Democrats working in foreign policy that believe this as well and are working on their own innovative ways to make this happen. Alec Ross’ work at the Department of State comes to mind, using social media as a way to make foreign policy operate better. But Mr. Ross works more in the background; you don’t really see him on the Sunday morning talk shows. Further, what I’m thinking is less operational and more big picture, the sort of thing that we saw in the development of the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review under Secretary Clinton to match up with the Quadrennial Defense Review over at DoD, but with a greater public face to it.

So where does that leave the Democrats? As of this moment, nowhere. Instead of finding new mashups to put out and make into earworms, enticing people to view their ideas from a new angle, we see them playing their Greatest Hits collection. Unfortunately, fewer and fewer people seem to be listening, and rehashing the same old songs just make it easier for their sounds to be cancelled out by the GOP. All of this spells trouble not just for Democrats but the United States as a whole.

September 29, 2011

IEDs and Cuba Libres, together at last according to Bachmann

I was trying to hold off on this until I finished my full upcoming post on the foreign policy weakness of the current crop of Republican Presidential candidates. I really was, but this can’t hold back anymore. The sheer stunning craziness forces me to speak. I have also come to realize that there are times on this blog for gravitas and intellectual rigor when covering a subject. This will be applied to the aforementioned post. There are also times for blatant mocking. This post is very, very much the latter.

I’m of course talking about Michele Bachmann. Of course. It turns out that unbeknownst to the United States writ-large, Cuba has been close to prompting another missile crisis for a plucky young team of mutants to solve. This time, the Soviets aren’t the ones that are putting up missile sites in Havana. It’s Hezbollah.

In her recent slams on Cuba, potentially a bid to help her win the Florida primary, Congresswoman Bachmann has decided to focus on Cuba’s alleged ties with the Lebanese terrorist organization cum political party. After asking her crowd in Cedar Rapids, Iowa why the United States would normalize trade with a country that sponsors terrorism, i.e. Cuba, she let this loose:

“Hezbollah has been potentially looking at wanting a part of missile sites in Iran,” she said, citing earlier her position on the House Intelligence Committee. “So of course when you’re 90 miles offshore from Florida, you don’t want to entertain the prospect of hosting bases or sites where Hezbollah can have training camps or perhaps have missile sites or weapons sites in Cuba. This would be foolish.”

So yes. Just a few problems there. First of all, this entire story was all based on one report, which was published in Italy’s Corriere della Sera at the end of August and was pushed on several conservative blogs. I managed to find the piece, and while I don’t speak Italian, and Google Translate doesn’t do the best job of unpacking everything, I’m not seeing any attributed quotes, or even unattributed quotes. It’s odd, because the newspaper has a sterling reputation, especially compared to other Italian newspapers, but the story is both brief and lacking in anything that makes it ring true.

In any case, the article speaks of a trio of Lebanese who have made their way to Cuba from Mexico to use it as a base for attacks against Israelis in Latin America and to meet with people of ill-repute to traffic weapons and smuggle people across borders. These three are to be joined by over twenty others to launch forward operations. There is some small air of truth in this, in that Hezbollah has been known to operate in some of the more lawless areas of South America, such as the Tri-Border Region, for smuggling and money laundering. But there’s nothing in this article that makes it seem like the story that is being pushed about Cuba has any backing to it. Nor does is mention anything about missiles or setting up training bases.

Not that that sort of thing matters to Congresswoman Bachmann. According the Wall Street Journal article linked, she’s using her time on the House Intelligence Committee, which she won after the 2010 midterms, to promote her experience with foreign policy. Okay, pause. Let’s say maybe, just maybe, that in her time on the House Intelligence Committee, she came across something to back up her statement about Hezbollah and Cuba. That would definitely qualify as something that the public doesn’t know then, and would have been revealed by Congresswoman Bachmann. How does leaking privileged information in speeches help your case? Answer: it doesn’t. At all.

More likely, as reported in this Politico piece, it was a case of Michele Bachmann skimming something put in front of her and then speaking on it publicly as she often does, leaving it for her aides to clean up. Good luck with this one guys. The Twitterverse and blogosphere are already having a good time with it, as evidenced by this tweet by IR scholar/part-time Anne-Marie Slaughter nemesis Dan Drezner:

 I have it on good authority that Hezbollah is in league with the Parti Quebecois #notreally #somethingforbachmanntocitenextweek

Couldn’t have said it better myself.